764
FXUS64 KCRP 160645
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
145 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND RED FLAG WARNING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH TODAY,
PLENTY OF DRY AIR USHERED IN BY A BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP
THE FIRE RISK CRITICAL TODAY. FOR THIS REASON, WIND ADVISORIES ARE
OUT THOUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. FOR MARINE CONCERNS, THE GALE
WARNING WILL GO OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LAG IN THE DECREASING
SEAS AND THESE WILL GO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. APART FROM ALL
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TODAY NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO. THESE COOLER TEMPS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FROM WEDNESDAY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY
MAKES IT WAY BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PAIR THIS WITH INCREASING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WE'LL BACK BACK
INTO AN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TODAY, LEAVING US WITH
DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GALE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 11-15 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH DECREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THE EVENING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT (BF 4) WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS OF 90-96TH PERCENTILE CLASS OF ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW AS 10% AND DECREASING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE RISK AT CRITICAL LEVELS. WHILE
MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT
(NEAR 25%) WINDS WILL BE DRAMATICALLY CALMER. TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIN
RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10-15% RANGE BUT WITH RELATIVELY
CALMER WINDS THAN THE DAY PRIOR. THIS WILL KEEP THE FIRE RISK
ELEVATED BUT GENERALLY UNDER NEAR-CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 45 66 53 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 60 36 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 67 44 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 66 40 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 64 46 66 56 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 65 40 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 66 43 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 63 52 65 58 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ229>234-
239>247-342>344-346-347.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ229>233-
239>241.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ234-242>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...LS/77
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