409
FXUS64 KCRP 182326
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS DAILY THROUGH MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TREND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY THE RECORD-
BREAKING H5 RIDGE (~595 DAM) CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SW US.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE AREA, SUPPORTING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
AT THE SURFACE, SERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF AND
THERMAL LOWS DEVELOP DAILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE JET
STREAM/STORM TRACK WILL KEEP ANY FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS WARM ALMOST 10 DEGREES (FROM 8 TO 18C). SERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AN E-W GRADIENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR (WITH 20-30%
CHANCES OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY THE
WEEKEND). FORTUNATELY RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AND (AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY)AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL FOSTER EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING VCT/ALI
MAINLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIMEFRAME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS AND
A FEW-SCT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY STRENGTHEN
TO A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF PORT ARANSAS THIS WEEKEND. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA,
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15-30% AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY. SIMILARLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS
LIKELY FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 81 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 49 83 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 56 88 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 51 86 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 60 77 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 53 87 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 52 84 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 62 75 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...EMF/94
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