053
FXUS64 KCRP 081110
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
610 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- MODERATE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES REST OF THE WEEK
- POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DAILY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LEAVING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH
PWATS THAT ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED THE 75TH PERCENTILE WITH THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AROUND 1.50". CURRENTLY HAVE FORECASTED A LOW CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO A MODERATE
CHANCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DECREASING TO A LOW
CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
TRENDING UP WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S OUT WEST BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. TONIGHT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SAY
GOODBYE TO LOWS IN THE 50S AS NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP
TO NEAR OR AROUND 70 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST THIS WEEK AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE REVEALED WATER
REACHING OR NEARLY REACHING THE DUNES DURING HIGH TIDE. GUIDANCE HAS
NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INUNDATION. IN ADDITION, TIDAL LEVELS
ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELL. P-ETSS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERDONE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH PREDICTED LEVELS AROUND 1.5 FT MSL BUT LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 1 FT MSL ABOVE PREDICTED SO EXPECT PERIODS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS A FEW SPOTS THIS
MORNING (COT,LRD, ALI). THIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MIDMORNING
BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR WHICH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING
RETURNING TO MVFR WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO IFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
AN ONSHORE GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BREEZE WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH (BF 4-5) LATE THIS WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WATERS INCREASES TO A MODERATE CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, INCREASING TO A MODERATE
CHANCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DECREASING TO A LOW
CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND ELEVATED RH
VALUES ARE PROGGED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WINDOW OF
INCREASED WINDS SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS ERC VALUES HOVER AROUND
THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 40-60%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 67 80 67 / 10 0 40 60
VICTORIA 81 61 82 64 / 10 0 40 40
LAREDO 81 68 81 67 / 20 10 60 50
ALICE 81 64 82 65 / 20 0 40 50
ROCKPORT 79 68 80 69 / 10 10 30 60
COTULLA 81 64 81 67 / 10 0 40 40
KINGSVILLE 79 65 81 65 / 20 0 40 50
NAVY CORPUS 76 69 78 69 / 10 10 40 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...NP/92
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