923
FXUS64 KCRP 110650
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
150 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF-FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. A FEW
SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF PVA WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW TO MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF TEXAS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROBUST SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWATS ~1.9) THAT MAY RESULT
IN SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH REST OF THE CWA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5). STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER HAS BEEN REACHING THE
DUNES LEADING UP TO TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECEDE.
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS UP TO AROUND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND A
RIP CURRENT STATEMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 16-18Z
AS WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04-06Z TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY
WITH REST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 71 81 71 / 40 20 40 30
VICTORIA 83 69 81 69 / 40 20 60 30
LAREDO 87 72 88 73 / 30 20 40 30
ALICE 85 70 84 70 / 40 10 50 30
ROCKPORT 81 72 81 72 / 40 10 40 30
COTULLA 86 70 85 71 / 50 40 70 30
KINGSVILLE 84 71 83 70 / 30 10 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 78 73 / 40 20 40 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...JCP/84
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