235
FXUS64 KCRP 112030
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- MODERATE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF-FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2.0" BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEARING 1500-2500 J/KG, A WEAK CAP, AND
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVELS 1-2 OF 5) SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT
TIMING AND SEVERITY OF THE EVENT IN OUR AREA. SOME OF THE LATEST CAM
RUNS INDICATE A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIMEFRAME OF THE STORMS OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE AND A DELAYED ADVANCEMENT INTO SOUTH TEXAS, IF THE
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
GENERALLY CALLS FOR POPS IN THE 30-60% RANGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT, THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY MAKES FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. HAVING SAID THAT, PER THE RRFS, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSITIONING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN REGARDS TO COASTAL CONDITIONS, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ONGOING
ALONG THE GULF-FACING BEACHES WITH TIDES REACHING 1.6-1.7 FT AT HIGH
TIDE, WHILE HAVE REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE BAYS.
THEREFORE, HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS, AND MAINTAINED
IT IN EFFECT OVER THE GULF. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH THE FLOW OFFSHORE BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH, SWELL HEIGHTS AND
PERIODS HAVE SUBSIDED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
IN CASE ANOTHER ADVISORY IS REQUIRED. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
---
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE TODAY MARKS MY LAST DAY ON THE FORECAST DESK
HERE AT WFO CORPUS CHRISTI. THE PAST 14 YEARS HAVE BEEN AMAZING,
THANK YOU CORPUS FOR ALL THE OPPORTUNITIES TO GROW AND TO LEARN. I
WILL BE MISSING EVERYONE DEARLY. HASTA LA PROXIMA AMIGOS! - ANIEVES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
FALLING TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. ANOTHER CHANCE WILL
COME IN SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY AT ALI/COT/VCT SITES, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY
WITH REST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 82 72 83 / 20 40 40 10
VICTORIA 69 82 69 85 / 20 70 40 10
LAREDO 73 88 73 91 / 20 40 40 10
ALICE 71 84 70 88 / 20 40 40 10
ROCKPORT 72 81 72 82 / 20 40 30 10
COTULLA 71 85 70 91 / 30 50 40 10
KINGSVILLE 71 83 71 86 / 20 40 40 10
NAVY CORPUS 73 79 73 80 / 20 40 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...ANM/88
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page