208
FXUS64 KCRP 120736
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
236 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 231 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE RAINFALL CHANCES
- LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF-FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE REGARDING TIMING AND
SEVERITY OF CONVECTION SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS, CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
COINCIDING WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS WILL INDUCE A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, PROMOTING HIGHER
PWATS (~1.75- 1.90") WHICH IS ABOVE +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DUE AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE, WITH MLCAPE UP TO
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG, PARTICULARLY WEST OF HWY 281. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY
WITH REST OF THE CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
PRIMARY HAZARDS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE THE
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD
TO TIMING, EXACT EVOLUTION AND SEVERITY OF STORMS. REGARDLESS,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO BE PREPARED INCLUDING HAVING
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
BY MONDAY, SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PROMOTING DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER. WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PWATS LIKELY REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THE LACK OF FORCING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION VERY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
WHICH, SOME MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BUT DISCREPANCY IS HIGH SO MORE ON THIS LATER, AS
WE NEED TO MAKE IT THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST.
90S RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY MID-
90S AROUND MIDWEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH LOW TO
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO
POTENTIALLY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH A
MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW, SWELL PERIODS AROUND 7-8 SECONDS, 4-
6 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEING A CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON ON APRIL 17TH. WATER YESTERDAY HAS
REACHED THE DUNES AT SOME BEACHES MAINLY NEAR PORT ARANSAS BUT WITH
LOWER SWELL HEIGHTS AND PERIODS WILL HOLD OF ON ISSUING A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
ISSUE IF NECESSARY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AFTER WHICH A MODERATE RISK
IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY AROUND 2K FEET. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE
SOME SITES COULD SEE VFR WHILE OTHER DIP AS LOW AS IFR. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE EVENING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FAR AS WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP,
BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE PROMOTING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE COAST FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN AND AROUND
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH REST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5). STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE BRIEF PERIODS OF 20 FT WINDS
APPROACHING 20 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL BEND EACH DAY, ELEVATED MINIMUM
RH VALUES AROUND 40-60% INLAND AND ERC VALUES AROUND THE 20-25TH
PERCENTILE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. LATER IN THE WEEK, RH VALUES OUT WEST MAY DROP TO AROUND
30% SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. CURRENTLY, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 72 83 72 / 40 30 10 0
VICTORIA 81 69 84 69 / 70 40 20 0
LAREDO 88 72 91 72 / 30 30 10 10
ALICE 84 70 87 70 / 50 40 10 0
ROCKPORT 81 72 82 72 / 40 40 10 0
COTULLA 84 70 90 71 / 60 40 10 10
KINGSVILLE 82 71 85 71 / 50 30 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 73 79 73 / 40 30 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...JCP/84
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page