894
FXUS64 KCRP 121902
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
202 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF-FACING BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
DEEP MOISTURE SURGES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX AND POORLY
RESOLVED STORM ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE LED TO PROLONGED CLOUD
COVER, THUS REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY AND WHERE MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER ON TODAY. WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION DISPLACED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING, STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY HEAVILY ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES, LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, COVERAGE, AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
OUR CWA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY. SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST
HEATING, CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-
3000 J/KG WITH WEAK CIN. HOWEVER, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY
COULD REDUCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY, LEADING TO AN EARLIER ONSET OF
CAPPING THIS EVENING.
WHILE ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AND POSE A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES (UP TO 8 DEGC/KM) AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS), AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION
TOWARD A MORE CLUSTERED STORM MODE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
WELL IS BEING SUGGESTED BY A HANDFUL OF CAM MODELS DUE TO WEAKER MID-
LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL,
WITH OUTCOMES RANGING FROM LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY TO LOCALLY STRONG
OR SEVERE CLUSTERS DEPENDING ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES, MEANING ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO A QUIETER START
TO THE WORKWEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S BY LATE WEEK. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIP CURRENT RISK AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS WE WILL HAVE A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE
FLOW, SWELL PERIODS AROUND 7-8 SECONDS, 4-6 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS, AND
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEING A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR AS WE APPROACH A NEW
MOON ON APRIL 17TH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AT AREA TERMINALS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY IFR
LEVELS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SPECIFIC TIMING OF CONVECTIVE IMPACT ON AREA
SITES REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. NONETHELESS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED
PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH SCENARIO. THE CONVECTION
IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LIFTING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5). STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DESPITE
BRIEF PERIODS OF 20 FT WINDS APPROACHING 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
BEND EACH DAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 35-60% INLAND AND ERC VALUES
AROUND THE 20-25TH PERCENTILE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL LIMIT
THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. LATER IN THE WEEK, RH VALUES OUT WEST
MAY DROP TO AROUND 30% SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
CURRENTLY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 83 71 83 / 30 10 0 0
VICTORIA 70 85 68 85 / 40 20 0 0
LAREDO 72 90 72 92 / 40 10 0 0
ALICE 70 87 70 87 / 30 20 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 82 72 82 / 30 20 0 0
COTULLA 70 91 71 90 / 50 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 71 85 70 86 / 30 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 80 73 79 / 30 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...ANM/88
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