922
FXUS64 KCRP 141121
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND PERIODS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL PERSIST, INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
- VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME THROUGH THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING AROUND THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WILL PROMOTE INCREASING PWATS WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN REACHING 1.75" THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SOMETIME SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (LOW TO MODERATE) DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE BUT A PERSISTENT CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LOWER RAIN CHANCES MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT WORKWEEK.
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND STABLE CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
WORKWEEK WILL COMBINE WITH PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO KEEP
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AND POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW,
LONGER-PERIOD SWELLS UP TO AROUND 8 SECONDS, AND 4-6 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS. PETSS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASING LEVELS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON ON APRIL
17TH. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ADDITIONAL MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
SITES RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST, INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS FOR TONIGHT STARTING
BETWEEN 04-08Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF STRONG (BF 6) FLOW. WINDS WILL BACK TO A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
THROUGH LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK BUT RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW TO MODERATE
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GENERALLY LOW DUE TO INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PROMOTED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, INLAND AREAS-PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY-MAY EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AT TIMES
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS (10-20 MPH).
DESPITE THESE FACTORS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ERC VALUES IN THE 20-
25TH PERCENTILE RANGE AND RFTI VALUES NEAR OR AT ZERO WILL LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 84 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 93 72 90 71 / 0 10 10 0
ALICE 88 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 92 71 89 70 / 0 0 20 10
KINGSVILLE 86 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 80 73 80 74 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...JCP/84
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