806
FXUS64 KCRP 142339
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS CURRENTLY STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
THE REDEVELOP STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE WEAK SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE TRACE AMOUNTS AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD CLIP THE AREA
AROUND COTULLA ON WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
OVERALL, THE WORK WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGEST S-SE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WHICH WILL USHER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS S TX.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY, MOVING THROUGH S TX SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. A
FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AS FOR THE
PROBABILITY, CHANCES ARE LOW (10-20%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN CHANCES INCREASE TO 25-45% SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE WITH SIMILAR
HIGHS MONDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS THE NBM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
WEEKEND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
SO, STAYED TUNED!
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SWELL PERIODS 6-8 SECONDS, AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THIS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT COULD BE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE PETSS INDICATES
INCREASING TIDE LEVELS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH IS MORE
LIKELY FOR WATER TO REACH THE DUNES AT HIGH TIDE AND WARRANTING A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE BEST CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO FORECASTED
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KNOTS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
SWELL PERIOD. THE SWELLS MAY ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING RIP CURRENT
RISK BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY THE "ALONG-SHORE" WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND STRENGTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIMILAR FORECAST CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STRONG (BF 6)ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS
RELAX SATURDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME STRONG LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES (<~15%) EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK BUT
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ARE VERY LOW
(<10%) ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 30-40% THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
FRIDAY, BUT BASED ON THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND LOW
ERC VALUES, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL INCREASES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 73 91 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 70 87 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 73 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 71 89 70 94 / 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 70 86 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 80 73 80 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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