326
FXUS64 KCRP 110606
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
106 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 7 AM.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS LED TO A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT TIME OF WRITING
(11:30 PM), A QLCS EXTENDS FROM SAN ANTONIO TO JUST SOUTH OF EAGLE
PASS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED, WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH IN THE STRONGEST BOWING SEGMENTS. HAIL HAS ALSO
BEEN RECORDED, BUT WITH THE CONVECTION LOOKING TO BECOME OUTFLOW
DOMINANT, CONFIDENCE IN LARGE HAIL IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MAY, WITH VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
1.60 INCHES, WHICH SUPPORTS DECENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WPC
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT, ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
INLAND AREAS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10% THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT COT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN MEASURED, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
WITH THESE STORMS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, REACHING LRD AROUND 07Z AND CRP AROUND 08Z.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY FOR ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THESE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE
TAF. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH STRONG
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MODERATE (BF
4) WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY RELAXING TO A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) BY MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN BY MIDWEEK, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 71 85 71 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 86 67 87 66 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 87 71 89 72 / 20 0 0 0
ALICE 87 69 88 68 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 88 72 86 74 / 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 86 68 89 69 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 86 70 86 69 / 20 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 82 75 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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