170
FXUS64 KCRP 141117
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
617 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) NEXT WORK WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCREASES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
ANOTHER MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES. GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND INCREASED CHANCES, CONFIDENCE IS
GREATEST OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTACT
THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE A SERIES OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER SOUTH TEXAS
REPEATEDLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THESE SHORTWAVES, INCREASED
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING PWATS TO AROUND 2.0" (99TH PERCENTILE) AND
925MB MEAN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WILL LEAD TO DAILY
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AND EXTREMELY WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL REFLECT THE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN COMBINATION OF THESE EXTREMELY
WARM DEWPOINTS, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100-110
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE HOT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION OF LOW OVERNIGHT RECOVERY FROM HEAT, WILL PROMOTE A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (LREF) THAT
INCORPORATES GEFS, GEPS, AND ENS CONSISTED OF 100 MEMBERS SHOWS A 30-
50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS NORTH. LASTLY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. A NEW
MOON OCCURS SATURDAY AND PERSISTENT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN GREATER SWELL PERIODS OF 6-8 SECONDS AND WAVE RUN-
UP TO PUSH WATER NEAR THE DUNES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
PATCHY FOG IS RESULTING IN VIS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES
THIS MORNING. BY 15Z, MOST OF THE FOG MIXES OUT RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SE'LY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PATCHY IN COVERAGE BY 12Z
FRIDAY AFFECTING INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO MODERATE TO FRESH
(BF 4-5) TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP TO 25-30%
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED CRITERIA.
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO ONLY 45-50% OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY, ALONG WITH DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 72 88 74 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 91 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 96 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 93 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 87 76 87 77 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 96 69 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 70 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82
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