919
FXUS64 KCRP 142015
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) NEXT WORK WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCREASES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DIGGING SOUTH AND EXTENDING INTO WEST
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY FUNNEL THOSE
DISTURBANCES INTO OUR REGION. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE FUNNELED INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC SURGING OUR PWATS
AROUND 2.0", WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING (99TH PERCENTILE). THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SOME INCREASED HEAT STRESS RELATED CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM DEW POINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER EFFECTIVELY
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARMER HIGHS DURING
THE DAY. WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING AS WE EMBARK CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEK.
P-ETSS GUIDANCE IS PORTRAYING TIDE LEVELS POTENTIALLY 2.0 FT MSL
LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LIKELY INCREASED WINDS WITH GREATER SWELLS.
THIS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, THEREFORE
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR (LIKELY BRIEF) CIGS AND
MAYBE VSBYS (CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW ON THE VSBYS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS POTENTIALLY UP TO
30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP TO 25-30%
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED CRITERIA.
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO ONLY 45-50% OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY, ALONG WITH DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 88 75 87 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 69 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 87 78 88 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 70 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 70 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 78 85 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92
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