675
FXUS64 KCRP 142333
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) NEXT WORK WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCREASES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DIGGING SOUTH AND EXTENDING INTO WEST
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY FUNNEL THOSE
DISTURBANCES INTO OUR REGION. ALONG WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE FUNNELED INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC SURGING OUR PWATS
AROUND 2.0", WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING (99TH PERCENTILE). THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SOME INCREASED HEAT STRESS RELATED CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM DEW POINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER EFFECTIVELY
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARMER HIGHS DURING
THE DAY. WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING AS WE EMBARK CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEK.
P-ETSS GUIDANCE IS PORTRAYING TIDE LEVELS POTENTIALLY 2.0 FT MSL
LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LIKELY INCREASED WINDS WITH GREATER SWELLS.
THIS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, THEREFORE
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MAINLY SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) STRENGTHENS TO 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, LEADING TO A MORE LOW CEILING
THREAT RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS FOR MVFR CEILINGS, MAINLY IMPACTING
VCT/ALI, AND IF WINDS ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED MVFR VSBY COULD
ALSO MIX IN. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER ON FOG DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
MIXING TOWARDS THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY 15Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED AT
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 88 75 87 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 69 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 87 78 88 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 70 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 70 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 78 85 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94
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