891
FXUS64 KCRP 151115
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDEX 100-110
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%) LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCREASES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
90S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
USHERING IN FROM A DEEP TROUGH SAGGING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA COMBINES
WITH EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 925MB CARRYING A STRONG 30-40
KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) ALONG WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY. NEAR MAX MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH FROM
MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS, TO CREATE DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK, EITHER A CUT-OFF LOW OR
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. THE
ECMWF IS DEFINITELY THE WETTEST SOLUTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS, WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWARD. RAINFALL LOCATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. THE LREF MAINTAINS A 50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1"
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 100-110 ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, CAUSING A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND THEREFORE POSES
THE GREATEST THREAT TO HEAT RISK. ONCE AGAIN, EXTREMELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
ONE OF OUR PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR WITH THE NEW MOON, ALONG WITH
STRONG PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
SWELLS. I DO WANT TO NOTE THAT THE LACK OF BUOY DATA MAKES IT HARD
TO TRULY GET A GRASP ON THE SWELL HEIGHTS AND PERIODS, A MAJOR
COMPONENT TO WAVE RUNUP ON THE BEACHES. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON BEACH CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING,
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A SCATTERED LOW-CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 1.5-2K FT. THESE LOW-
CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT IN COVERAGE BY MID-MORNING WITH A BREEZY SE
WIND 15-20 KT GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THIS WILL REDUCE CIGS
INTO MVFR TERRITORY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)
BREEZE TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. AN EXTENSION OR/AND
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING DAILY ON TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP
TO 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE AND FUEL
MOISTURE IS MAINLY NORMAL TO DRY. FOLLOWING TODAY, NO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO ONLY
45-60% OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY, ALONG WITH DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 75 88 79 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 89 72 89 76 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 99 72 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 94 71 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 86 77 87 79 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 99 72 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 73 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 77 85 79 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ231-232-250.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82
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