727
FXUS64 KCRP 151703
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDEX 100-110
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%) LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCREASES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW, WE
WILL HAVE STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AS WE HAVE A TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DIGGING SOUTH AND EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
WILL SEND A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTO OUR
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THIS, DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
PUMPED INTO THE REGION INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 2.0", WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING (99TH
PERCENTILE). GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL
RECEIVE RAIN. HOW MUCH EACH PART OF THE AREA WILL GET WILL BE
DECIDED ON HOW THE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF NOW,
THE LREF IS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS WILL RECEIVE 1" OF RAINFALL (60-75%) THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN REGARDS TO THIS DUE IT STILL
BEING A FEW DAYS OUT.
HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL BE ANOTHER BIPRODUCT OF THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IN THE REGION. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERY
WARM DEW POINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER EFFECTIVELY OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARMER HIGHS DURING THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-110 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK. WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE THE PRACTICE OF HEAT
SAFETY IN THESE CONDITIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND REMEMBER TO
STAY HYDRATED, CHECK THOSE BACKSEATS, AND AVOID LONG EXPOSURE IN
THESE TEMPERATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION BE SURE TO CHECK OUT
WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY.
P-ETSS GUIDANCE IS PORTRAYING TIDE LEVELS POTENTIALLY 2.0 FT MSL
LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LIKELY INCREASED WINDS WITH GREATER SWELLS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
LAX IN MOST SPOTS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT A COUPLE OF SITES
OVERNIGHT (LRD,COT,VCT).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. AN EXTENSION OR/AND
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING DAILY ON
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP
TO 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE AND FUEL
MOISTURE IS MAINLY NORMAL TO DRY. FOLLOWING TODAY, NO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO ONLY
45-60% OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY, ALONG WITH DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 88 79 89 / 0 0 10 0
VICTORIA 72 89 76 91 / 0 0 20 0
LAREDO 72 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 71 93 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 87 79 88 / 0 10 10 0
COTULLA 72 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 79 86 / 0 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ231-232-250.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92
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