064
FXUS64 KCRP 161050
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HEAT INDEX 100-110
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) MONDAY TO TUESDAY, INCREASES TO MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AND POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AND DEEPEN TODAY AS THE STUBBORN RIDGE EARLIER THIS WEEK
FLATTENS SOUTHWARD AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAIN TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW CONUS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO MID 90S, CREATING HEAT INDICES OF 90-100 AND A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 925-850MB NEARS
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX THIS WEEKEND, THEN COMBINES WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ENHANCING PWATS TO AROUND 2.0" (99TH PERCENTILE).
HIGH DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN RECORD FLIRTING HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES 100-110 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. GREATEST
CONCERN REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE GREATER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-
70%) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE AND A SURFACE
COASTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORM INTENSITY
POTENTIAL AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE
CAVEAT IS THE LOW-LEVEL CINH IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE TO 3KM LAPSE
RATES LESS THAN 6 C/KM. HOWEVER, DEPENDENT ON THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL PVA, WE
COULD BREAK THIS CAP AND TAP INTO THE 2500+ J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH
DCAPE NEAR 1000. RIGHT NOW, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT LESS CONFIDENT ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH A BIT BEYOND DAY 7, THE LREF SHOWS A MEDIUM CHANCE (45-60%)
OF RAINFALL TOTALING OVER 2.0" ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECENS MEAN SHOWS 1.75-3.25" (WEST TO EAST), THE GEFS
MEAN SHOWS 1.0-2.0", AND THE GEM MEAN SHOWS 2.50-3.00". SPREAD
THROUGHOUT 7-10 DAYS, THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE WELCOMED WITH OPEN ARMS
FOR OUR WATERSHED.
LASTLY, THE P-ETSS TIDE PREDICTIONS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A TAD, NOW
BETWEEN 1.5-1.7FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING SWELL HEIGHTS
AND PERIODS, THERE REMAINS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A CLOUD DECK HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CIGS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 1.5-2K FT. THIS WILL START MIXING OUT BY 15Z
LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH SE'LY WINDS AT 15-20
KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE CLOUD DECK
RETURNS TONIGHT BY 03Z ALONG THE COAST AND BY 08Z FURTHER INLAND.
MOST OF THE REGION SEE'S MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE, THOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
PORT ARANSAS. AN EXTENSION OR/AND EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
40%, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 79 90 80 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 90 77 91 78 / 0 10 10 10
LAREDO 98 77 100 78 / 0 0 10 10
ALICE 93 77 94 79 / 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 88 79 89 80 / 10 0 10 10
COTULLA 97 76 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 78 91 80 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 79 86 80 / 0 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ231-232-
250.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82
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