510
FXUS64 KCRP 161923
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HEAT INDEX 100-110
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) EARLY IN THE WEEK, INCREASES TO MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCES (40-75%) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ROUTINELY PEAK BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES. THE
HIGHEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WHERE REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR GREATER HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS WELL, GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SEVERAL SITES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR A
WIDESPREAD WETTER PATTERN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PWAT VALUES 1.90-2.00+ INCHES BY EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK,
ACCORDING TO THE GEFS MEAN AND GFS. THIS IS APPROACHING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND COULD HELP PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY UPCOMING DISTURBANCES, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
ISOLATED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING OR URBAN AREAS WHERE THE
RISK OF PONDING IS HIGHER. CURRENTLY, FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THIS COULD CHANGE
SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND PVA ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
HOW EVERYTHING LINES UP, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO INITIATE
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND COULD OVERCOME THE CAP. CURRENT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR INCREASED
CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
COASTAL IMPACTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS ELEVATED SEAS AND A HIGHER
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES. P-ETSS GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELL PERIODS COMBINE WITH LUNAR TIDE
CYCLES AS WE START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON PHASE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, BUT AREA-WIDE VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES BETWEEN 3-5 SM, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
(<10%) SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY WITH PEAK CHANCES
(UP TO 50-65%) EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
40%, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 90 80 91 / 10 0 10 10
VICTORIA 76 90 78 91 / 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 77 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 77 94 79 95 / 0 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 79 89 80 90 / 20 0 10 10
COTULLA 76 98 79 99 / 0 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 78 91 80 92 / 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 86 80 87 / 10 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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