606
FXUS64 KCRP 162349
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HEAT INDEX 100-110
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) EARLY IN THE WEEK, INCREASES TO MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCES (40-75%) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ROUTINELY PEAK BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES. THE
HIGHEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WHERE REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR GREATER HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS WELL, GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SEVERAL SITES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR A
WIDESPREAD WETTER PATTERN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PWAT VALUES 1.90-2.00+ INCHES BY EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK,
ACCORDING TO THE GEFS MEAN AND GFS. THIS IS APPROACHING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND COULD HELP PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY UPCOMING DISTURBANCES, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
ISOLATED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING OR URBAN AREAS WHERE THE
RISK OF PONDING IS HIGHER. CURRENTLY, FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THIS COULD CHANGE
SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND PVA ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
HOW EVERYTHING LINES UP, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO INITIATE
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND COULD OVERCOME THE CAP. CURRENT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR INCREASED
CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
COASTAL IMPACTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS ELEVATED SEAS AND A HIGHER
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES. P-ETSS GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELL PERIODS COMBINE WITH LUNAR TIDE
CYCLES AS WE START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON PHASE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST, LIKELY GOING TO IMPACT CRP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
09-13Z. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT,
ABOVE 10 KNOTS, PROHIBITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 16Z TOMORROW, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO A SUSTAINED 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY WITH PEAK CHANCES
(UP TO 50-65%) EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 90 80 91 / 10 0 10 10
VICTORIA 76 90 78 91 / 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 77 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 77 94 79 95 / 0 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 79 89 80 90 / 20 0 10 10
COTULLA 76 98 79 99 / 0 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 78 91 80 92 / 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 86 80 87 / 10 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94
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