074
FXUS64 KCRP 171740
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HEAT INDEX 100-110
- WET PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-75%)
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MOISTURE IS ON THE RISE (BUT SO IS THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS)! TODAY WILL MARK THE START OF A LONG STRETCH OF AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH TEXAS. SATELLITE DEPICTS A FEW
SPOTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH PWATS ALREADY 1.75-1.90"
(>75TH PERCENTILE). OUR FIRST OF MANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL
SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING LOW 10-15%
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND
2.0" (99TH PERCENTILE) MONDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET USHERS IN PACIFIC MOISTURE ON TOP
OF NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX 925 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-75%) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE AREA IN
COMBINATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE PROJECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1.50-3.00" ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH.
RAINFALL IS COMPROMISED OF VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE; THE ECENS
RANGES FROM 1.75-4.00", GEFS RANGES FROM 1.00-2.00", WHILE THE GEM
RANGES FROM 2.00-2.50". INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH THEIR RAINFALL LOCATION, THE ECMWF RESULTS IN A
WETTER SOLUTION WITH GREATER RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS THE GREATEST RAINFALL NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE WPC
DOES HAVE PARTS IF NOT ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL DAYS WILL NEED A MENTION AND/OR INCREASED
RISK LATER THIS WEEK.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A CONCERN MID-LATE
THIS WEEK AS MUCAPE CLIMBS ABOVE 2500 J/KG WITH DCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG. THE TWO LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE 900-800MB CAP AND WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE DISTURBANCES AND PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM, THERE WILL BE PERIODS THAT ELEVATED LIFT WILL
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK THROUGH THE CAP AND TAP INTO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY.
PERSIST STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
SWELL PERIODS INCREASING TO 7-8 SECONDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN UPGRADES TO A HIGH RISK MONDAY. ACCORDING TO
THE P-ETSS, TIDE LEVELS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING. AFTERWARDS, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE ON A DECLINE.
HEAT INDICES OF 100-110 TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
EXTREMELY WARM DEWPOINTS FORCING NEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES, LEADS TO A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS! PLEASE STAY HYDRATED AND LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK:
WEATHER.GOV/HEAT
A LOOK BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD: MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS,
PUTTING SOUTH TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING
AROUND 00Z AND PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR VCT/ALI/CRP, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY (GENERALLY
<15%). SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS (~30-35KT) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN INCREASE TO A STEADY MEDIUM CHANCE, 50-60%, THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 80 91 80 / 20 20 10 10
VICTORIA 90 78 91 77 / 20 20 20 10
LAREDO 99 79 100 78 / 10 10 10 10
ALICE 94 79 95 79 / 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 89 80 90 80 / 20 20 10 10
COTULLA 98 79 100 79 / 20 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 91 79 93 80 / 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 80 87 80 / 20 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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