870
FXUS64 KCRP 172359
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HEAT INDEX 100-110
- WET PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-75%) TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A HOT, HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INLAND
BENEATH PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
18Z LAUNCH ALREADY SHOW PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (1.83"
CURRENTLY), AND GUIDANCE INDICATES PWATS REMAINING BETWEEN 1.8-2.2"
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE 99TH PERCENTILE BEING AROUND
2.0". THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION ONCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINS EACH DAY.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL
STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, THOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A 10-
20% CHANCE TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION, PRIMARILY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE LIFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
COAST TO UPPER 90S INLAND. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL COMMONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 100-110
DEGREES. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE LIMITED
NIGHTTIME RELIEF.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO TEXAS WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL CORRIDORS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. GIVEN SATURATED SOILS ARE NOT CURRENTLY A MAJOR
CONCERN, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME;
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES.
AS A RESULT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS PLACED SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL;
GENERALLY INCLUDING ALL OF OUR CWA STARTING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THOUGH POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND SPC HAS NOT INCLUDED OUR
REGION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. LONG-
PERIOD SWELLS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING TIMES OF HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY PERSIST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED EAST OF THE REGION WHILE
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND WILL ADVECT INLAND AND IMPACT CRP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MOISTURE IS ON THE RISE AND WE'RE SEEING SPOTTY
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, MAINLY WEST, BUT SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
IS INCREASING IN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. ADDED PROB30S TO REFLECT
THE BEST TIME WINDOW WHEN THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS IMPACT TERMINALS.
THE ONLY STORMS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ARE OFF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS, AND HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT TO THE RIO GRANDE. DID
WANT TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT LRD FOR THE LOW CHANCE THE STORMS
MAINTAIN THEIR LONGEVITY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
MIST, NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING; AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEK. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 10
VICTORIA 78 91 78 91 / 20 20 20 10
LAREDO 79 100 79 99 / 20 20 20 10
ALICE 79 94 79 94 / 20 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 20 10
COTULLA 79 99 79 98 / 20 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 80 92 80 91 / 20 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 88 81 87 / 20 20 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94
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