268
FXUS64 KCRP 101127
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK EACH DAY.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED SURF
CONDITIONS/POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO KEEP A VERY
SEASONAL PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS IN THE MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS A BIT STRONGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, MAINLY IN
THE 90S.
FOR THE WEEKEND WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM WHAT WILL BE LEFT OVER AFTER TS CRISTINA
MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
ONLY A MODERATE INCREASE IN SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WITH THE INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE, WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THOUGH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POPS (CURRENTLY 30-40%) IF MOISTURE CAN
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS, AND WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL. CURRENT P-ETSS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIFE LEVELS AROUND 2FT
ABOVE MSL.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES COMES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SHORTWAVE PASSES NEAR THE AREA. PWAT
VALUES OVER 2" ARE EXPECTED AND CURRENTLY HAVE 40-60% POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ALIGN WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO HELP INCREASE THOSE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HAVE MVFR TO LIFR VSBY AT ALI AS CEILINGS BOUNCE AROUND. COULD
DROP DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS
ARE VFR/MVFR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF THE SAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS 3-4 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 5-7 FEET
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE LOW END (10-15%)
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEABREEZE THAT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAIN REMAINS LOW. THE RECENT GREEN-UP ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40% WILL KEEP THE FIRE RISK
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 80 91 80 / 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 0 0
LAREDO 96 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 10 0
COTULLA 95 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 78 90 78 / 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 90 82 / 0 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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