083
FXUS64 KCRP 110537
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN INCREASE
TO A MEDIUM CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE GULF (MOISTURE FROM T.S. CHRISTINA IN
THE PACIFIC MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA) WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES RANGING FROM 10-
35%. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEXAS WILL BRING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD S TX. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS S TX,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PWATS OF
2.1-2.3 INCHES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS S TX. THE DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO COMING TO FRUITION IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MEDIUM. IF THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA, BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH MUCH LESS RAINFALL ACROSS S TX. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR UPDATES TO THE UPCOMING WEEK'S RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINING WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY, LEADING TO HEAT INDICES RANGING 100-110 DEGREES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO HIGH
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 8-9 SECONDS, WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH ASTRONOMICALLY
HIGHER TIDES AND NEARING A NEW MOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE TX COAST.
AS FOR ANY TROPICAL WEATHER, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 10%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CIGS. ALI
IS LIKELY TO GET FOG BUT NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT ARE A LITTLE ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST, ACTING AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH UP TO AROUND 20-25KT GUSTS. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
REMAINS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE
ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS 3-4 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
5-7 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A LONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH
ACROSS THE GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 77 93 76 93 / 10 20 0 10
LAREDO 77 95 76 95 / 0 20 0 10
ALICE 77 92 76 91 / 10 20 0 30
ROCKPORT 82 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 77 95 76 96 / 0 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 90 77 90 / 10 10 0 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 89 82 89 / 0 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...BF/80
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