191
FXUS64 KCRP 111125
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THEN INCREASING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OFF OUR WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY THE WEEKEND WE'RE WATCHING SOME MOVEMENT IN THIS RIDGE, WITH A
NORTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD DRIFT IN THE AXIS AND AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION. PREVIOUSLY, IT LOOKED LIKE TWO SEPARATE
PERIODS CONVECTION, SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT IN RIDGE
POSITION, THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS
POTENTIALLY RAINY. MOST OF THIS IS DUE TO A COUPLE OF TROPICAL
WAVES, BUT WE'RE ALWAYS WATCHING A SHORTWAVE IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH, AS CRAZY AS THIS SOUNDS, A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. NOW, IT'S MID-JUNE, AND FRONT'S MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE PRETTY RARE, BUT THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH. PWAT VALUES THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD REACH WELL OVER 2 INCHES, APPROACHING 2.5" EARLY NEXT
WEEK. (NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND 1.5" WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE JUST UNDER 2".) IT'S TOO EARLY TOO TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH PWAT VALUES THIS HIGH,
THE RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL COME WITH PRETTY HIGH RAINFALL RATES,
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE US GET INTO AN ERO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO TREND A BIT DRIER AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WORKS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE'S A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO HIGH
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 8-9 SECONDS, WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH ASTRONOMICALLY
HIGHER TIDES AND NEARING A NEW MOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE TX COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE MVFR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT. THERE'S A LOW 20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAR ALI BUT HAVE LEFT OUT
OF TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. TONIGHT MVFR CIGS RETURN TO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT CRP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS 3-4 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
5-7 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A LONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH
ACROSS THE GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE LOW END (10-15%)
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT INCREASE TO MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WETTING RAINS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND NO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 80 90 79 / 20 10 10 0
VICTORIA 92 77 93 76 / 20 10 20 0
LAREDO 98 78 95 76 / 10 0 20 0
ALICE 92 78 92 76 / 20 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 91 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 78 95 76 / 10 0 20 0
KINGSVILLE 91 79 90 77 / 20 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 90 83 89 82 / 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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