024
FXUS64 KCRP 112313
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THEN INCREASING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIMITED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DESPITE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S
INLAND AND COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ELEVATED
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES AT TIMES.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WEAKENS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 2.5-2.6
INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS, HELPING TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY DRIVE
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. WHILE FRONTS REACHING OUR
CWA IN MID-JUNE ARE RELATIVELY UNCOMMON, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY
STALLING NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE, INCREASING LIFT, AND THE POTENTIAL FRONTAL
INTERACTION MAY SUPPORT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING SHOULD HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS DEVELOP. WPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, WITH A MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1-2 OF 4) IN PLAY FOR MONDAY.
MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF, DRIVEN BY THAT BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL INCREASE SWELL PERIODS TO AROUND 7-10
SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7-8 FEET BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COMBINED
WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES NEAR THE NEW MOON PHASE, THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION,
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES MAY
BRIEFLY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE WETTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BEFORE
WARMING AGAIN AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WITH ANY ACTIVITY DYING BY
LATER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL CURRENTLY BUT WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 05-
11Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT, THEN REVAMP TO A SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 7-8 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A
LONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF FROM A BROAD AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BECOMING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 90 79 90 / 10 10 0 30
VICTORIA 77 93 76 93 / 10 20 0 20
LAREDO 78 95 76 95 / 0 20 0 20
ALICE 78 92 76 91 / 10 20 0 30
ROCKPORT 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 78 95 76 96 / 0 20 0 20
KINGSVILLE 79 90 77 89 / 10 20 0 40
NAVY CORPUS 83 89 82 88 / 10 10 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...XX/99
AVIATION...PH/83
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