456
FXUS64 KCRP 120648
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THEN INCREASING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WE'RE KEEPING OUR EYES ON FOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD
SHUNT SOME OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
DOES GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE STILL EXPECT
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY WITH A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE AREA.
WHAT THIS LOOKS LIKE IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS A CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (20-30%) ON
SATURDAY. PWATS SHOULD BE ABOVE 2" BY SATURDAY, BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS BETTER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS, BUT CHANGES IN THE
RIDGE STRENGTH COULD ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS AS WELL.
THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP LOWER THE
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD. AT THAT TIME PWAT
VALUES STILL ARE IN THE VICINITY OF 2.5" AND WOULD LEAD TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHEREVER THE FRONT DOES STALL, IT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION AND A MULTI-DAY TOTAL THROUGH MID-WEEK OF 1-3
INCHES IS POTENTIALLY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. NOT EVERYONE WOULD
SEE THIS MUCH, SO WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT ERO FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE COULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
SATURDAY, IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON COASTAL WATER CONCERNS
INCLUDING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENTS.
HAVE ADDED A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SATURDAY AND THIS WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS MOVE INTO
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TONIGHT EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING FOG BUT ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND EXPECT
VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR. TOMORROW AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY GUSTY (20-25KT) SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS 3-4 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
6-8 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A LONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH
ACROSS THE GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE LOW END (10-15%)
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT INCREASE TO MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WETTING RAINS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND NO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 79 90 80 / 10 10 30 10
VICTORIA 93 76 93 77 / 10 0 30 0
LAREDO 96 76 95 76 / 10 0 20 0
ALICE 92 76 91 77 / 10 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 91 82 91 82 / 10 10 30 20
COTULLA 95 76 95 77 / 20 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 91 77 90 78 / 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 88 82 / 10 10 30 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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