957
FXUS64 KCRP 121843
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
143 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THEN INCREASING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AS RECENT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
LATER WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TODAY AND DURING MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS AND SEABREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S INLAND
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-110 DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE/ELEVATED DEWPOINTS.
BY SATURDAY, DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION. WHILE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, NHC
HAS DESIGNATED A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY AS IT MAY RE-
EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHILE
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (MORE ON THIS BELOW!). PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0-2.6 INCHES, SUPPORTING A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE THE
STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT MAY INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
INITIALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GENERALLY
APPEAR ON THE MANAGEABLE SIDE, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES COULD OCCUR BENEATH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BECOME GREATER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WHILE ALSO DRIVING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE, INCREASING LIFT, AND THE
POTENTIAL FRONTAL INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT
EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING SHOULD HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS DEVELOP.
THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL, AS THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT RAINFALL PROJECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES, THOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WPC CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL
OUTLOOK EXPANSIONS MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL PLACEMENT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.
AS FAR AS COASTAL HAZARDS GO, INCREASING LONG-PERIOD SWELLS TO
AROUND 7-8 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 5-7 FEET COMBINED WITH
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES NEAR THE NEW MOON PHASE ON SUNDAY WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ROUGHLY 22Z. OVERNIGHT, MVFR CIGS RETURN ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BEYOND 14Z WITH
REDUCTIONS BACK INTO MVFR TERRITORY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5-7 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A LONG
EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BECOMING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 89 80 90 / 30 30 40 50
VICTORIA 76 92 77 91 / 20 30 30 60
LAREDO 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 40
ALICE 76 90 77 91 / 20 50 30 60
ROCKPORT 82 91 82 91 / 20 20 40 40
COTULLA 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 30
KINGSVILLE 77 89 78 90 / 30 40 30 60
NAVY CORPUS 82 88 82 89 / 30 30 40 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRF/98
AVIATION...AE/82
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