277
FXUS64 KCRP 131123
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THEN INCREASING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TODAY AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A BROAD DISTURBANCE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT CURRENTLY HAS A LOW 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WHILE MID- LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY, INCREASING PWATS NEAR
2.0-2.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. GEFS PWAT MEAN IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.10" AT THE TIME OF
TODAY'S 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH, SO WE'LL SEE HOW WELL THIS VERIFIES
AND THAT SHOULD GIVE US A BETTER IDEA HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY (MODERATE TO HIGH)
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A
WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
BOUNDARY, INCREASING LIFT ALOFT AS WEAKENING IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
DUE A STRONG TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION, AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CURRENT
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN OR REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTH TEXAS IN
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING SHIFTS EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN BEGINS TO RECOVER. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BY FRIDAY, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN MAY RETURN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND
AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES
MAY STILL APPROACH MODERATE HEAT RISK LEVELS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
DURING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 7-8 SECONDS COMBINED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
5-7 FEET AND ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES NEAR THE NEW MOON WILL
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED, WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG GULF-
FACING BEACHES WITH WATER REACHING THE DUNES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES ANY
VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
ANY REDUCTIONS TO VSBY/CIG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING. TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25KT. TONIGHT GENERALLY EXPECT A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR LOWER CIGS
AROUND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO MODERATE TO HIGH AS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CHANCES FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN LOW (20%) AND CURRENTLY HAS
LOW END CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OVERALL, A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW (BF 4-5) WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY STORM, SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LONG-
PERIOD SWELLS INCREASE, LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK OVER THE
GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE, ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (MODERATE TO HIGH). WET FUELS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 80 90 79 / 40 20 40 60
VICTORIA 92 78 91 76 / 20 10 60 60
LAREDO 94 77 94 77 / 30 10 40 40
ALICE 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 70 40
ROCKPORT 91 82 91 81 / 20 20 40 60
COTULLA 94 77 94 76 / 30 10 30 50
KINGSVILLE 89 78 90 77 / 40 20 60 40
NAVY CORPUS 88 82 89 81 / 30 30 40 70
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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