381
FXUS64 KCRP 132317
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
617 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE OF EASTERN MEXICO.
- RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN APPROACHING
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- WPC HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING FOR MONDAY. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) IS IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF EASTERN MEXICO. WHILE
NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, BUT PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE 2.0-2.5 INCH RANGE (~2.25 INCHES ALREADY PER TODAY'S 18Z CRP
SOUNDING), SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S INLAND, AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY
WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHES A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL ENVIRONMENT
WITH SATURATED PROFILES, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS, AND LONG, SKINNY
INSTABILITY PROFILES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO 4-7 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CORRIDORS, LOW-LYING AREAS, AND
LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY AND HAS INTRODUCED A BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) FOR MONDAY.
BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK, RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST FORCING SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE WETTER PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, BUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING HEAT INDICES AND A RENEWED MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AREA AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.
AS FAR AS COASTAL HAZARDS GO, LONG-PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 7-8 SECONDS
AND SEAS OF 5-7 FEET COMBINED WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES DUE
TO THE NEW MOON PHASE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND
BEACH CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A FEW SHOWERS STILL AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT GENERALLY
ISOLATED. A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR ALL
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH CONVECTION NOTED IN ALL TAFS. COULD START AS EARLY AS AROUND
SUNRISE NEAR THE COAST, GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FEET IN RESPONSE TO A LONG EAST-SOUTHEAST
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 00-12Z SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE ADVERSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY STRONGER STORMS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 90 78 88 / 40 70 80 80
VICTORIA 78 90 77 88 / 20 70 80 80
LAREDO 77 94 77 91 / 10 50 40 70
ALICE 77 91 77 88 / 30 70 60 90
ROCKPORT 82 90 82 90 / 40 70 80 80
COTULLA 77 93 76 90 / 10 40 50 80
KINGSVILLE 78 90 77 87 / 40 60 60 90
NAVY CORPUS 82 89 82 88 / 50 70 80 80
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
DISCUSSION...KRF/98
AVIATION...PH/83
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page