748
FXUS64 KCRP 141138
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE OF EASTERN MEXICO.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE GOING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST. THE ONE
THING TO NOTE IS AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WE'RE
ALREADY SEEING A NOTED INFLUX IN MOISTURE WITH A PWAT ON THE EVENING
SOUNDING OF 2.21", THIS IS JUST SHY OF THE DAILY MAX VALUE OF 2.25".
WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE THAT DROP OFF MUCH IF ANY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN. PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.5"
WITH SOME MIND BOGGLING HIGHER VALUES AROUND 2.75". IN ADDITION TO
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, WE'LL HAVE A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA - RECENT
RUNS HAVE BACK OFF A BIT, WE'LL ALSO HAVE DAILY SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, AND POSSIBLY THE MOST NOTABLE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCHES
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE RAINFALL RATES WE WILL EXPECT TO SEE, THERE WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS. WHILE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH 2-3" IN 1-3 HOURS, RAINFALL RATES LIKELY
EXCEEDING 2" WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS, ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBAN AREAS. WE
ARE CURRENTLY BLANKETED WITH A SLIGHT ERO, BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL TO SEE THAT UPGRADED IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH THE MOST
CONCERNING TIME BEING MONDAY AND TUESDAY (EAST).
NOW THAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE MAIN STORY, THE REST OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE, THINK TROPICAL FUNNELS COULD ONCE
AGAIN SHOW UP AROUND THE AREA, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, WILL BE CAPPED MAINLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THANKS TO THE MOISTURE LEVELS AND CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY WHEN THE
RAIN ENDS, DO NOTE A INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS, AND A WARMER DAY THEN
BEFORE DROPPING BACK A BIT AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THIS MORNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND
65% ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS AND UP TO 35-45% OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING. PREDOMINATELY LOW RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, VSBYS MAY REDUCE TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AND AROUND STRONG STORMS. BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS, THIS INCLUDES A 15% CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SUNDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND A 25% CHANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A FRESH ONSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO A MORE
MODERATE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO FRESH LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE, ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (MODERATE TO HIGH). WET FUELS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 79 88 78 / 60 50 60 90
VICTORIA 91 77 88 75 / 60 50 70 80
LAREDO 94 77 91 75 / 50 50 70 90
ALICE 91 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 90
ROCKPORT 92 81 90 80 / 70 60 60 90
COTULLA 94 77 90 74 / 40 40 80 80
KINGSVILLE 90 78 87 76 / 60 50 70 90
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 88 80 / 60 60 70 90
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ270-
275.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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