177
FXUS64 KCRP 142319
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
619 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (30%) OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
- RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING FOR MONDAY. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS
IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF TODAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING QUITE A RAINY PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR 18Z CRP SOUNDING HAS ALREADY INDICATED PWATS
OF ~2.50 INCHES, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH PWATS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 2.25-2.50 INCHES AND LOCALLY APPROACHING 2.60-2.75 INCHES. THIS
VERY MOIST AIRMASS, COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND EFFICIENT
WARM-RAIN PROCESSES, WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
MULTIPLE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY STALL NEAR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS, WHILE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6-8 INCHES WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHERE TRAINING
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND HREF
PROBABILITIES, RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER CELLS, WHICH COULD QUICKLY OVERWHELM
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN,
LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MUCH OF OUR CWA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HAS BECOME
NECESSARY, PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY, AS CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. ALL OF THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE LIMITED RAINFALL COULD STILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 103 TO 107 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WEAK
RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO TREND UPWARD AGAIN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED HEAT RISK CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS COASTAL HAZARDS GO, LONG-PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 6-8 SECONDS
AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET COMBINED WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES DUE
TO THE NEW MOON PHASE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH
CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE NOTED PERIODS WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS,
BUT A ROGUE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM, WHEN
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND ANY STRONGER STORMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) LEVELS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE UP TO 7-9 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 88 77 84 / 60 80 90 90
VICTORIA 77 87 75 84 / 40 80 90 90
LAREDO 77 91 75 86 / 40 70 70 70
ALICE 77 88 75 83 / 40 70 90 90
ROCKPORT 81 88 79 87 / 60 70 90 90
COTULLA 77 89 74 86 / 50 80 70 70
KINGSVILLE 77 88 76 83 / 50 80 90 90
NAVY CORPUS 81 88 80 86 / 70 60 90 90
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRF/98
AVIATION...PH/83
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