781
FXUS64 KCRP 150717
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
217 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 216 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MODERATE ERO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- NHC INDICATING A LOW CHANCE (30%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH A POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPING AS
IT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MID-
DAY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE SITUATION OVERVIEW FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THIS WEEK. THE SETUP FOR A PRETTY BIG RAIN EVENT REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH A VERY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PWAT VALUES ARE NEARING DAILY RECORD LEVELS, AND
QUITE POSSIBLY WILL REACH THOSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.7" (!).
WILL SEE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING,
LIKELY BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE COAST. WE ALSO HAVE APPROACHING
CONVECTION FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY MORNING AS WELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2-4",
MAYBE EVEN UP TO 5"/HR AT TIMES.
THE MOVEMENT OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD ALL THE
CARDS IN HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT MORE AGREEABLE IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW
THAT EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. IF THE LOW MOVES OFF FARTHER SOUTH, WE
WOULD GET INTO A DRIER SITUATION MORE QUICKLY, BUT IF IT MOVES OFF
THE COAST FARTHER NORTH (WHICH IS AT THIS TIME THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO), WE STAY IN THE RAIN -ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST - FOR A
LONGER PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG THE COAST.
A NOTABLE INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING WITH 4-7" TOTALS
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAREDO TO VICTORIA. NORTHWEST OF THIS
LINE GENERALLY 2-4". LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO AROUND 10" ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS. THAT SAID,
GUIDANCE ISN'T ALL IN AGREEMENT ON HOW THAT LOW WILL PROGRESS, SO
THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE...IF THEY DID, WOULD BE MORE LIKELY BE TO
LOWER VALUES THAN HIGHER.
IF THESE TOTALS PLAY OUT, WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR RESPONSES ON A
NUMBER OF LOCAL RIVERS WITH AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
AS FAR AS OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST, MOST DAYS THIS WEEK WILL
FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
BRIEFLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY MORNING ALSO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL DEPEND IN WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ONCE IT
MOVES OUT OF THE WATER.
COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENT CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY
TODAY, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, UNLESS THE
SURFACE LOW GETS IN THE WAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCTS NEAR LRD/COT.
MVFR CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A MENTION AT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TS INCREASE BEGINNING AROUND 12Z THROUGH THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE HIGH (~75-80%) ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
EXPECTED. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND VFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, INCREASING TO FRESH AND POSSIBLY STRONG
BY MID-WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO MOVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY
MID-WEEK. THIS COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
IF IT DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL INCREASE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE, ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (MODERATE TO HIGH). WET FUELS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 77 83 76 / 70 80 90 60
VICTORIA 85 74 83 74 / 80 80 80 50
LAREDO 88 74 86 74 / 80 80 70 20
ALICE 86 74 82 73 / 80 90 80 50
ROCKPORT 89 79 87 78 / 80 80 90 70
COTULLA 86 73 86 73 / 80 80 70 20
KINGSVILLE 85 75 81 74 / 70 80 90 60
NAVY CORPUS 87 80 86 79 / 80 80 90 70
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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