119
FXUS64 KCRP 152311
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
611 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4"/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
FORECAST TO AVERAGE 4-8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS.
- TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD MEANDER INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
LATE TUESDAY, WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM. NHC
HIGHLIGHTS A 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. IN RESPONSE, MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EACH DAY. ELEVATED TIDES
MAY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
- A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WE HAVE NOW MADE IT INTO THE PROLONGED AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WE'VE BEEN MESSAGING, AS A DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS BLANKETS THE REGION. A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLING SOUTHWARD, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE REMNANTS OF FORMER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA, WILL SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REACH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LEVELS FOR MID-JUNE, WITH PWATS CLIMBING
INTO THE 2.30-2.75 INCH RANGE, APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING DAILY
CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. OUR SPECIAL 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING
INDICATED ~2.50 INCHES WHICH IS ROUGHLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH OUR 18Z SOUNDING VALUES
COMING IN AT ~2.40 INCHES. THIS DEEPLY SATURATED TROPICAL PROFILE
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL-PRODUCING
ENVIRONMENT, WHERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR, WITH ISOLATED RATES APPROACHING 5
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR
SLOW-MOVING AND TRAINING CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS, VICTORIA CROSSROADS, AND NEAR THE COAST.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THAT MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS LOW WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS A TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROLONG PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL BEND, WHERE
REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NHC HAS INDICATED A MEDIUM FORMATION CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
(40%) AND OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS (50%).
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 4-8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAREDO-TO-VICTORIA LINE,
WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES FARTHER INLAND AND NORTHWEST.
LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE PERSISTENT TRAINING BANDS DEVELOP. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, EMPHASIZING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY
BE THE CASE IN URBAN AREAS, LOW-LYING LOCATIONS, AND PLACES
EXPERIENCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS RAINFALL
INTENSITIES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL QUICKLY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE
SYSTEMS AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THRESHOLDS. SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS MAY RISE RAPIDLY, AND LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS RUNOFF ACCUMULATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
ASIDE FROM THE FLOODING THREAT, PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT REMAINS
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION AND TRACK OF THE LOW, THOUGH
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, SUCH AS ELEVATED TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AREA BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
AND AVOID JETTIES AND PIERS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE OFTEN STRONGEST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID, AND ANY BREAKS
IN RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK COULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO QUICKLY
REBOUND ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY, AS WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 110-115 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST, WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND POTENTIALLY REACHING 115-
120 DEGREES. LINGERING MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY BREAKS IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 15-18Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH AND POSSIBLY STRONG
(BF 5-6) BY MIDWEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40%) FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
MOVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF IT
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY, CURRENT SEAS OF 3-4 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 5-
9 FEET IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
LINGERING MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 82 75 90 / 90 90 70 40
VICTORIA 74 82 74 88 / 90 90 70 50
LAREDO 74 85 73 94 / 90 80 20 0
ALICE 74 81 73 90 / 90 90 50 30
ROCKPORT 79 85 78 90 / 90 90 80 40
COTULLA 73 85 73 93 / 80 70 10 0
KINGSVILLE 75 80 73 89 / 100 90 60 30
NAVY CORPUS 79 85 78 90 / 90 90 80 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRF/98
AVIATION...KRF/98
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