339
FXUS64 KCRP 161159
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
659 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- NHC INDICATING A MEDIUM CHANCE (60%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE TEXAS
COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THIS FORECAST ISN'T GETTING ANY EASIER. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE VALLEY AND SOUTH TEXAS. AREA WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1-2
INCHES OCCURRED TODAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHER TOTALS
INCLUDING OVER NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES WHERE ESTIMATES OF
3-5 INCHES ARE NOTED. THE DAYTIME RAIN HAS PRIMED A LOT OF THE AREA
FOR FLOODING WITH THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE LOW SITUATED NEAR NUEVO LAREDO CURRENTLY, THE EVOLUTION TONIGHT
SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE A BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/STORMS WEST OF
THERE. WITH SKY HIGH PWAT VALUES (2.66 ON EVENING SOUNDING) VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WILL BE IN PLAY AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2-
4"/HOUR ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THIS LOW IS
GOING TO DO AS IT STARTS MOVING EASTWARD. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING IT TO AROUND THE COAST AND THEN NORTHWARD, THE
QUESTION IS, HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OR WILL IT MOVE JUST OUT OVER
THE GULF. THIS IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS. 1)
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL STAY IN A VERY WET PATTERN, WHILE THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS
AND IS ABLE TO PULL DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD BE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN,
AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO SET UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT QPF EXPECTATIONS BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK WOULD BE FOR MAINLY LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLANS AFTER TUESDAY MORNING, AND LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEST. NOW FOR THE OTHER CONCERN... 2) IF THE
LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST, IT COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC MAY BEGIN ISSUES ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY IF CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT IT WOULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF.
IF THAT DOES DEVELOP, WE COULD GET SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED ALONG
OUR COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD INTO MID-WEEK.
ONCE THE MID-LEVEL LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR MOVES IN AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES AND WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
WIND DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE CARDS TODAY WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BUT IS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH AND POSSIBLY STRONG
(BF 5-6) BY MIDWEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (60%) FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
MOVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF IT
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY, CURRENT SEAS OF 3-4 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 5-
9 FEET IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE, ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (MODERATE TO HIGH). WET FUELS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 75 90 79 / 100 40 20 0
VICTORIA 82 73 89 77 / 90 40 30 10
LAREDO 86 73 95 79 / 70 0 0 0
ALICE 81 73 90 77 / 90 40 10 0
ROCKPORT 86 78 92 83 / 100 60 30 10
COTULLA 86 73 94 78 / 70 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 73 90 78 / 90 40 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 79 90 83 / 100 50 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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