881
FXUS64 KCRP 162317
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- NHC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH TO A
MARGINAL RISK BY WEDNESDAY.
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY EVENING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS GIFTED US ALL OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTHEAST, GENERALLY ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOW BEEN DESIGNATED POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ONE BY THE NHC. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY
IN ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE A FEW WIND GUSTS
THAT REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT, WHILE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST, BUT WE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. HOPEFULLY, THIS WILL
GIVE US TIME TO DRY OUT A LITTLE BEFORE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY,
MUCH LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS AND RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS DRIER
REGIME.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD REACH NEAR 120 ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ALONG THE INLAND COASTAL BEND. DRIER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD ALLOWING
HEAT INDICES TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY, MAXING OUT NEAR 115,
THEN GENERALLY FROM 102-109 THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS SPINNING OVER THE COASTAL BEND
LEADING TO SHOWERS FOR KALI/KVCT/KCRP THROUGH 02Z. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY WILL REMAIN CLOSEST TO THE
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG AND A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE
AREA, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND MORE VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY NEAR GALE (BF 4-7) WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE ENTERS
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE (BF 7-8) ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEAS 5-7 FEET. HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD
BE SQUALLY AT TIMES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-6), HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 92 80 95 / 30 30 10 0
VICTORIA 73 90 78 93 / 30 20 0 0
LAREDO 73 95 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 73 91 78 97 / 20 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 93 84 93 / 50 30 0 0
COTULLA 73 94 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 74 91 79 96 / 30 30 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 91 84 92 / 40 50 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...AE/82
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