994
FXUS64 KCRP 101103
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 104-109 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LVL EASTERLY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY AND THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 2.1 TO 2.3
INCH RANGE (NEAR THE 90-95TH PERCENTILES FOR MID JULY). ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE GULF WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INLAND
WILL LIKELY NOT INITIATE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN
LONG THIN CAPE PROFILES HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SWATHS OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS ARE LIKELY WITHIN APPRECIABLE CHANCES OF 2-
3 LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH TOTALS. THESE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE MORE RATE-
DRIVEN THAN DURATION DRIVEN AS THE MEAN S-SE STEERING FLOW IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WEAK (FOR JULY STANDARDS) AND SO STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS
STEADILY N-NWRD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD ALLOW AREA SOILS
TO LARGELY SUPPORT THESE RAIN RATES WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
CONCERNS. AS ALWAYS IN THESE TYPES OF SUMMER-ENVIRONMENTS GUSTY (BUT
SUB-SEVERE) WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN.
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED (WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL). BY SUNDAY THE MID-LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
BACK IN FROM THE EAST. WHILE THIS SHOULD LOWER STORM CHANCES
RELATIVE TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, PWATS WILL STILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES SO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (GENERALLY 20-30 POPS) ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO NEXT
WORKWEEK THE FORECAST TRENDS MORE COMPLEX AS A ROBUST MID-LVL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND VARIOUS CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
DISTURBANCES PIVOT WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK, WITH THEIR
TRACK LARGELY TIED TO THE POSITIONING OF A W-E ORIENTED 700MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PICTURE, DRIER AIR
(LIKELY ENHANCED BY A SAL PLUME) WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GIVEN THAT THE
700MB BOUNDARY, AND THUS THE PRIMARY STORM-INITIATION ZONE LOOKS TO
SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE
MOMENT OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR
THE MON-WED PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH
REGARDING THE EXACT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A COUPLE DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS
TODAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, A WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, THOUGH HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT
LRD AND ALI EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALI, VCT, AND CRP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. THERE WILL
BE A MEDIUM (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF ERRATIC WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO
THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER
OUR NORTHERN WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 78 92 79 / 40 20 30 10
VICTORIA 91 76 92 77 / 40 10 40 10
LAREDO 94 77 94 77 / 30 20 40 30
ALICE 90 76 91 76 / 60 20 40 10
ROCKPORT 89 81 90 82 / 40 30 30 10
COTULLA 94 76 94 76 / 40 20 40 20
KINGSVILLE 91 77 91 77 / 60 10 40 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 81 90 83 / 40 20 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...LS/77
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