652
FXUS64 KCRP 110622
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
122 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TODAY AREAWIDE, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
- HEAVY RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 104-109 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
TODAY WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LVL EASTERLY DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA, AND ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY 95TH PERCENTILE (2.2-2.3 INCH)
PWATS. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA, LIKELY STARTING THIS MORNING OVER
THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAM PMMS SHOW A GENERAL SIGNAL FOR SWATHS OF
1-2 INCH TOTALS WITH A FEW LOCALIZED BULLS-EYES OF 2-3 INCHES
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN, OUR SOILS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS, SO ANY FLOODING CONCERNS
WOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME
SUB-SEVERE WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR, GIVEN THE SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ONE
FORECAST WRINKLE WORTH MENTIONING IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME EARLY EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LVL
PROFILES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO DOWNBURSTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WERE IT TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, ADDED CHC
(GENERALLY 25-40%) POPS FOR WEBB COUNTY AFTER 00Z.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOME MODEST DRYING ON SUNDAY AS THE MID-LVL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF TEMPORARILY KICKS THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
FURTHER WEST, PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT
ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW DIRECTION FAVORING THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAL PLUME WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN A NOTABLE N-S
GRADIENT IN BOTH MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES, WHICH WILL RANGE FROM
ONLY 10-20% OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TO 40-50% IN THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. TUESDAY INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD THE FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WHERE A BROAD MID-LVL WEAKNESS AND ITS EMBEDDED LOW
AMPLITUDE EASTERLY DISTURBANCES SET UP. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS THIS WILL CLOSELY TRACK A 700MB BOUNDARY, AND BE THE
FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD
PLACE THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITIES INVOLVED (I.E. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FEATURES), ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL
NEED TO MONITOR IT FOR A COUPLE MORE CYCLES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MVFR CEILINGS FOR LRD, COT, AND MAYBE
VCT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS
MENTION IN TEMPO GROUPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY, BEGINNING IN THE MORNING FOR VCT THEN
SPREADING TO THE WEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. THERE
WILL BE A MEDIUM (35-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF ERRATIC WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 79 91 79 / 40 10 20 0
VICTORIA 92 77 94 77 / 60 10 50 10
LAREDO 97 77 98 77 / 40 30 20 10
ALICE 92 76 94 76 / 50 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 91 82 91 82 / 50 20 40 10
COTULLA 94 76 96 76 / 50 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 91 77 92 77 / 40 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 89 82 / 30 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...LS/77
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