485
FXUS64 KCRP 111939
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TODAY AREAWIDE, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
- HEAVY RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 104-109 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG DOWNPOUR OR TWO (40-60% POPS OUT TOWARDS LA SALLE AND
WEBB COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z). PWATS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS RUN
APPROACH 2.2 INCHES (NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE),
SUPPORTING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. THERE IS ALSO SOME
VORTICITY IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS (700MB) OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THIS
WILL ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM TO KEEP THESE STORMS GOING.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE TO HELP THESE STORMS PRODUCE A
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOUR, THE CAPE IS SKINNY. IN ADDITION, THE
LACK OF WIND SHEAR COULD HINDER INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. DUE TO
THE LACKING FACTORS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE 500 HPA DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT DETACHES
FROM THE JET STREAM TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS
REASON, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS TEXAS, BUT
GENERALLY BE GREATEST FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THAT SAID, WE CONTINUE WITH PWAT GENERALLY BETWEEN
1.8-2.0 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION. EVEN SO, OUR SOILS HAVE DRIED ENOUGH TO ABSORB WHAT
FALLS EACH AFTERNOON, THOUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF TRAINING STORMS
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLOODING. BY THE LATTER-
HALF OF THE WEEK, OUR PWATS DECLINE TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES AS MID AND
SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OUT OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS, RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AS WE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH THE HEAT RISK MAXING OUT IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
CATEGORY. REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND REMAIN HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND. IN THE VICINITY
OF A THUNDERSTORM, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR (REDUCED VIS) HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASES AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 10-14Z HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED CIG/VIS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR UP WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AFTER 15Z, WITH ADDITIONAL
PROB30S NEEDED FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ONSHORE WINDS AT A GENTLE TO MODERATE STRENGTH (BF 3-4) WITH 2-3 FT
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 91 78 91 / 10 20 20 30
VICTORIA 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 40 70
LAREDO 77 97 77 97 / 50 10 20 20
ALICE 76 93 76 93 / 0 20 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 91 81 90 / 20 30 30 40
COTULLA 76 95 76 95 / 40 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 77 91 77 91 / 0 20 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 89 82 89 / 10 20 20 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/DC
AVIATION...AE
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