022
FXUS64 KCRP 122322
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TODAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- MAX HEAT INDICES 104 TO 109 DEGREES TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WITH THE 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY, THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF TROUGHING OVER THE ECONUS TO
DETACH FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND BRING LOBES OF VORT MAXES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN US AND RETROGRADING INTO TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WE REMAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW WITH PWATS
GENERALLY HOVERING BETWEEN 2.0-2.0" (CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL). THESE PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT FORMS, THOUGH THE GREATEST RAINFALL
RATES/AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTHEAST.
BY TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
PIVOT TO THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR, BUT
SHOULD THE UPCOMING GUIDANCE SHIFT SOUTHWARD, THEN THESE >50% POPS
COULD SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY AND TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL FALL AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
KEEPS HIGHER PWATS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS COMPARED TO THE
GFS ENSEMBLE. WPC HAS PUT PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY
(JUST THE TIP OF NORTHWESTERN WEBB COUNTY HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO GREATER UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT GREATER RAINFALL). AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME, BUT AS CAMS START PICKING UP ON
THE PERIOD, WE'LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE EXTENT OF QPF.
GIVEN THIS SHIFT TO MORE CLOUDY AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LEADING UP TO TUESDAY, HEAT INDICES (FOR LOCATIONS
THAT DON'T SEE STORMS ROLL THROUGH) ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 104-
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KALI, KCOT, AND KVCT BUT THERE IS AROUND A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KCRP. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TO KVCT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH A
10-20% AT THE REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS (BF 3-4) WITH 2-3 FT SEAS AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND INLAND BAYS
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 0 10
VICTORIA 76 91 76 89 / 30 50 40 60
LAREDO 78 98 78 97 / 20 10 10 0
ALICE 76 94 76 93 / 0 20 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 90 81 90 / 20 30 20 20
COTULLA 77 96 77 93 / 20 10 30 10
KINGSVILLE 77 92 77 92 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 89 82 89 / 10 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...NC/91
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