540
FXUS64 KCRP 131100
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TODAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- MAX HEAT INDICES 104 TO 108 DEGREES TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE MID-LVL EASTERLY DISTURBANCE WHICH HAS HUNG AROUND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER
WEST INTO NE MEXICO TODAY AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIEFLY BUILDS
WESTWARD. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME REDUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES, PWATS REMAIN IN THE 2.1 AND 2.2 INCH RANGE (JUST ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE) AND THUS EXPECT SCATTERED SEA-BREEZE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THAT THE MEAN 1000-700MB FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE S-
SERLY THIS WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR, ASSOCIATED WITH A SAL PLUME, WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM S-N ON MONDAY, AND THIS SHOULD HELP FURTHER FOCUS
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. AS CAN BE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND TIME OF YEAR ANY STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY TUESDAY, OUR ATTENTION BEGINS TO TURN TO A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
EASTERLY MID-LVL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PIVOT SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS
THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG (ALMOST 600 DAM)
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOSTLY FOCUS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND POINTS NORTH ON TUESDAY, THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MEDIUM-
RANGE CHANCES RETURNING AREA-WIDE. THIS DISTURBANCE, AND IN
PARTICULAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS,
HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE PARTICULARLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SETUP.
HOWEVER, I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVECTIVE TRAINING ALONG A 700MB
BOUNDARY. THE MID-LVL DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISPLACED
WESTWARD BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD, BEFORE PERHAPS BRIEFLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES MID-WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE AREA. WHILE
PEAK HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREES TODAY INTO
MONDAY, WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE A FEW LESS OPPRESSIVE DAYS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (TUESDAY) AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES (WEDNESDAY THURSDAY) WHICH MAY DROP PEAK HEAT
INDICES TO "ONLY" AROUND 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER ALI AND VCT THIS MORNING, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT CRP AND COT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITY, SO
HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN PROB30 GROUPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEING
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 91 76 89 75 / 40 50 50 30
LAREDO 98 78 97 78 / 10 20 10 10
ALICE 93 77 93 77 / 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 90 82 90 81 / 20 20 20 20
COTULLA 95 76 92 76 / 20 40 20 40
KINGSVILLE 91 77 91 78 / 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 88 82 / 20 10 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...LS/77
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