535
FXUS64 KCRP 131504 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE LATEST DISCUSSION WAS DELAYED AND IS NOW CURRENT BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY,
WITH MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- MAX HEAT INDICES 104 TO 108 DEGREES TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, AS NOTED BY SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES OF AROUND
1.9 INCHES HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SAL
PLUME, ALTHOUGH THIS PLUME IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF DUST
CONCENTRATIONS THAN THE PLUME WHICH IMPACTED THE AREA A COUPLE WEEKS
AGO. AT MID-LVLS, WEAK RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY, BEFORE
MID-LVL HEIGHTS FALL TUESDAY INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY
DISTURBANCE PIVOTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AM STREAMER SHOWERS
AND PM SEA BREEZE STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY FOCUS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TODAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT (AND IS FAVORED BY THE 1000-700MB FLOW
DIRECTION), BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN STORM
FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THERE A DECAYING MCS MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS ACTIVITY ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO OUR
AREA WITH MUCH INTENSITY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, CAN EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY 850-700MB BOUNDARY. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY, WITH RAIN CHANCES A
BIT HIGHER OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY (AND VARIOUS SOUTHWARD-PROGRESSING MCSS). AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE AREA WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE
DRIVEN ACTIVITY).
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY BEFORE WE SEE SOME LIMITED
COOLING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE WILL
THEN SEE A WARM UP TO NEAR AND THEN POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS LATE THIS WEEK. A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK
WILL BE PRESENT MOST DAYS, LARGELY DRIVEN BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPEEDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
MODERATE TO FRESH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE
WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40 PERCENT) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER ALI AND VCT THIS MORNING, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT CRP AND COT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITY, SO
HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN PROB30 GROUPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEING
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 91 76 89 75 / 40 50 50 30
LAREDO 98 78 97 78 / 10 20 10 10
ALICE 93 77 93 77 / 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 90 82 90 81 / 20 20 20 20
COTULLA 95 76 92 76 / 20 40 20 40
KINGSVILLE 91 77 91 78 / 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 88 82 / 20 10 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...NC/91
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