525
FXUS64 KCRP 132329
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY,
WITH MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THROUGH TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- MAX HEAT INDICES 104 TO 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE MAIN CHANGES FROM WPC'S SIDE IS THAT THEY HAVE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NORTH OF WEBB COUNTY,
PLACING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY/COASTAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2.1" WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR
ANY SLOW- MOVING/TRAINING STORM(S). THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY COMES ON WEDNESDAY, AND SUCH, THE WPC WILL
EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF THESE MODERATE
RAINFALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
DEVELOP IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
FOR THIS REASON, HEAVY RAIN MENTIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (ZFP) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS ADDED THREAT, THOUGH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER
TO HILL COUNTRY AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NEAR DEL RIO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, AS NOTED BY SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES OF AROUND
1.9 INCHES HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SAL
PLUME, ALTHOUGH THIS PLUME IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF DUST
CONCENTRATIONS THAN THE PLUME WHICH IMPACTED THE AREA A COUPLE WEEKS
AGO. AT MID-LVLS, WEAK RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY, BEFORE
MID-LVL HEIGHTS FALL TUESDAY INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY
DISTURBANCE PIVOTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AM STREAMER SHOWERS
AND PM SEA BREEZE STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY FOCUS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TODAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT (AND IS FAVORED BY THE 1000-700MB FLOW
DIRECTION), BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN STORM
FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THERE A DECAYING MCS MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS ACTIVITY ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO OUR
AREA WITH MUCH INTENSITY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, CAN EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY 850-700MB BOUNDARY. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY, WITH RAIN CHANCES A
BIT HIGHER OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY (AND VARIOUS SOUTHWARD-PROGRESSING MCSS). AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE AREA WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE
DRIVEN ACTIVITY).
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY BEFORE WE SEE SOME LIMITED
COOLING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE WILL
THEN SEE A WARM UP TO NEAR AND THEN POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS LATE THIS WEEK. A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK
WILL BE PRESENT MOST DAYS, LARGELY DRIVEN BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DO NOT HAVE SH MENTIONED FOR LRD, BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH SOME CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THERE AT ISSUANCE TIME.
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR CONVECTION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION NOTED NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY, AND AN EXPECTED SHARP CUT-OFF FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT
PROB30 FOR COT LATE IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL IT ALL REMAINS NORTH. ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT ONLY INCLUDING IN VCT TAF AT THIS
POINT WHERE CHANCES ARE BEST. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY VCT/ALI. ALSO BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG POSSIBLE AT ALI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY BEING
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-
5 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 91 80 89 / 10 0 20 30
VICTORIA 77 90 76 88 / 40 40 40 60
LAREDO 78 99 78 95 / 10 10 20 30
ALICE 76 94 77 91 / 10 0 20 20
ROCKPORT 82 90 81 90 / 10 10 30 40
COTULLA 77 94 76 89 / 20 20 60 60
KINGSVILLE 77 92 78 90 / 10 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 89 82 88 / 0 10 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...PH/83
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