296
FXUS64 KCRP 140620
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
120 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- A FEW STORMS NORTH ON TUESDAY, BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
- MAX HEAT INDICES 104 TO 108 DEGREES TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES ON 00Z SOUNDING HIT 2.2
INCHES, BUT WITHOUT A GOOD FOCUS MECHANISM, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE FLOODING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. WE DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TOMORROW.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH DIPPING DOWN TOWARD THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THERE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE
AN UPTICK IN POPS TO 50-60%, ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS WILL REALLY
HINGE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
IN OUR AREA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AREA
WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LOW, UNDER HALF AN INCH, THOUGH
DO PEAK A BIT HIGHER IN THE COTULLA AREA. PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN ARE UP TO 50% FOR AROUND COTULLA, AND MUCH LOWER FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. NO PLANS TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AND FFG DOES NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MID LEVEL FORCING PUSHES TO THE WEST AND
RELATIVELY DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SETTLES IN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
JUST AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE THAT IT
COULD REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR COT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NO
STORMS EVEN REACH COT. ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WILL ONLY INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
VCT WHERE THE CHANCES ARE GREATEST. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED, LEADING TO TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALI AND VCT. BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR ALI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
BECOME MORE MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 4-5 FT. GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT)
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 80 89 80 / 0 20 30 10
VICTORIA 90 76 88 76 / 40 40 60 10
LAREDO 99 78 95 77 / 10 20 30 20
ALICE 94 77 91 77 / 0 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 90 81 90 82 / 10 30 40 10
COTULLA 94 76 89 75 / 20 60 60 40
KINGSVILLE 92 78 90 78 / 0 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 88 83 / 10 20 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...LS/77
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