472
FXUS64 KCRP 141055
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- A FEW STORMS NORTH ON TUESDAY, BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
- MAX HEAT INDICES 104 TO 108 DEGREES TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES ON 00Z SOUNDING HIT 2.2
INCHES, BUT WITHOUT A GOOD FOCUS MECHANISM, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE FLOODING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. WE DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TOMORROW.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH DIPPING DOWN TOWARD THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THERE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE
AN UPTICK IN POPS TO 50-60%, ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS WILL REALLY
HINGE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
IN OUR AREA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AREA
WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LOW, UNDER HALF AN INCH, THOUGH
DO PEAK A BIT HIGHER IN THE COTULLA AREA. PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN ARE UP TO 50% FOR AROUND COTULLA, AND MUCH LOWER FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. NO PLANS TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AND FFG DOES NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MID LEVEL FORCING PUSHES TO THE WEST AND
RELATIVELY DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SETTLES IN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
JUST AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OUR NORTH, SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN SITES. SO
FAR, COT AND VCT HAVE REMAINED RAIN-FREE, BUT HAVE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THESE
TERMINALS. A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING BEFORE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SEABREEZE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED ANOTHER
PROB30 GROUP WHERE CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
BECOME MORE MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 4-5 FT. GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT)
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 80 89 80 / 0 20 30 10
VICTORIA 88 76 86 76 / 40 30 70 20
LAREDO 98 78 93 77 / 0 30 30 40
ALICE 92 77 90 77 / 0 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 89 81 89 82 / 10 30 50 10
COTULLA 91 76 87 75 / 20 40 60 50
KINGSVILLE 91 78 90 79 / 0 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 82 88 83 / 10 20 40 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...LS/77
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