506
FXUS64 KCRP 141905
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
205 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR LAREDO.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE AS THE REGION DRIES OUT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AND WHILE ALL
FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON (LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WEST OF SAN ANTONIO), BY TONIGHT A BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN POPS TO
50-60%, ESPECIALLY NORTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MOVE
INTO/DEVELOP IN OUR AREA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.
WHILE AREA WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LOW, UNDER HALF AN
INCH, THEY DO PEAK A BIT HIGHER IN THE COTULLA AREA. PROBABILITIES
OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ARE UP TO NEAR 50% FOR AROUND COTULLA,
AND MUCH LOWER FOR MOST OF THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
WHERE ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY POTENTIALLY FALL, SO NO FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, AND THAT IS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
NEAR LAREDO. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MID LEVEL FORCING PUSHES TO THE WEST AND
RELATIVELY DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SETTLES IN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
JUST AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF TO OUR NORTH, BUT IS STAYING AWAY FROM
AREA TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS NOW WILL BECOME A MIXTURE
OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH,
SO HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
VCT AND COT. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY RAIN
POTENTIAL AT OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
BECOME MORE MODERATE TO FRESH BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 4-5 FT. GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT)
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM FROM LAREDO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT LAREDO. THIS LARGELY HINGES ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, SO FOR NOW WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE AT COLUMBIA BRIDGE AND
LAREDO.
AS WE WATCH UPSTREAM GAUGES AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS,
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 89 80 90 / 20 30 10 10
VICTORIA 76 86 76 91 / 30 70 20 40
LAREDO 78 93 77 97 / 30 30 40 10
ALICE 77 90 77 93 / 10 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 89 82 90 / 30 50 10 30
COTULLA 76 87 75 91 / 40 60 50 30
KINGSVILLE 78 90 79 91 / 10 20 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 88 83 89 / 20 40 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLM/93
AVIATION...CLM/93
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