763
FXUS64 KCRP 150608
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
108 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY.
- SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MOSTLY SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING IN THE
BRUSH COUNTRY CURRENTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
EXTENDING EAST TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY THE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE, ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. MOST
OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND CHANCES WE WILL SEE ACTIVITY BEGIN TO
WANE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEA BREEZE BORN CONVECTION HOWEVER. SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS FROM
COT TO LRD. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT LRD,VCT,COT. OTHERWISE, BKN TO OVC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OUT OF THE SE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH CONDITIONS (BF 4-5) WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT. GENERALLY LOW TO
MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM FROM LAREDO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT LAREDO. THIS LARGELY HINGES ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, SO FOR NOW WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE AT COLUMBIA BRIDGE AND
LAREDO.
AS WE WATCH UPSTREAM GAUGES AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS,
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 80 90 80 / 30 20 10 0
VICTORIA 86 76 89 77 / 60 30 30 10
LAREDO 94 78 97 78 / 30 30 10 0
ALICE 90 77 92 77 / 30 20 10 0
ROCKPORT 89 82 90 82 / 50 20 20 10
COTULLA 89 75 91 76 / 60 50 30 10
KINGSVILLE 89 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 82 89 83 / 30 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...LS/77
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