174
FXUS64 KCRP 151102
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY.
- SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MOSTLY SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING IN THE
BRUSH COUNTRY CURRENTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
EXTENDING EAST TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY THE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE, ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. MOST
OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND CHANCES WE WILL SEE ACTIVITY BEGIN TO
WANE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEA BREEZE BORN CONVECTION HOWEVER. SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PREVAIL THIS MORNING,
WITH PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT TERMINALS WILL BECOME
GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH CLOUDY, BY MIDDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS WHEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH CONDITIONS (BF 4-5) WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT. GENERALLY LOW TO
MEDIUM (25 TO 40 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM FROM LAREDO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT LAREDO. THIS LARGELY HINGES ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, SO FOR NOW WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE AT COLUMBIA BRIDGE AND
LAREDO.
AS WE WATCH UPSTREAM GAUGES AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS,
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 80 90 81 / 30 20 20 0
VICTORIA 86 75 89 77 / 60 30 40 0
LAREDO 95 78 96 78 / 20 20 10 10
ALICE 91 77 92 78 / 20 20 20 0
ROCKPORT 89 81 89 82 / 40 30 30 10
COTULLA 89 75 90 76 / 50 50 40 30
KINGSVILLE 90 78 90 79 / 20 20 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 82 88 83 / 20 20 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...LS/77
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