412
FXUS64 KCRP 151953
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
- SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TODAY
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN-
MOST COUNTIES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS,
WHERE IS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. THIS PATTERN HAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UVALDE AREA HAS BEEN
ESPECIALLY HARD HIT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DUMPING 10+
INCHES AT A TIME, RESULTING IN CATASTROPHIC FLOODING.
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW, CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY QUIETER, WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAINFALL OBSERVED
SO FAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A FEW
WATER OR LANDSPOUTS.
THE FLOOD THREAT HAS NOT ENDED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS LONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, AND THE
RISK FOR BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
FORTUNATELY, BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MUCH QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
HEAT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT. HAVE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
COT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AS ADDITIONAL RAINSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. EXPECTING
MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF COT/VCT BUT HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. EXPECTING THE REGION TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY DIURNAL WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME PERIODS OF A LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZE. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CURRENT INSTABILITY OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS LED TO SOME WATER SPOUTS BEING REPORTED. PLEASE
USE CAUTION AND AVOID THIS DANGEROUS HAZARD. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WATERS AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCES AROUND 25% OR LESS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AND EVEN LOWER THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 90 81 91 / 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 75 89 77 91 / 10 20 10 10
LAREDO 79 97 79 99 / 10 10 10 0
ALICE 77 92 78 94 / 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 90 82 91 / 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 76 91 77 95 / 50 20 20 0
KINGSVILLE 79 91 79 93 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 89 83 89 / 10 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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