036
FXUS64 KCRP 160649
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
149 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE
A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN THE
MEANTIME, SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEABREEZE TO
PROMOTE VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST
PART THOUGH, WE WILL ENTER A DRIER PERIOD AS PWATS COME BACK DOWN TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THIS WEEKEND. WE CAN
EXPECT HEAT TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST PER USUAL. HIGHS
WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 105S OUT WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE 105-110 RANGE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO WEST OF SAN ANTONIO
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS. SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DRAPED OVER ALI. MVFR CEILINGS, PRIMARILY FROM ALI WESTWARD TO
COT/LRD, WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15-16Z. AFTERWARDS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO A SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME PERIODS OF A LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZE. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL
LOWER HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
MAINLY MODERATE OR HIGHER RH VALUES EXPECTED, NO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 81 92 80 / 20 0 0 0
VICTORIA 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 0 0
LAREDO 97 79 99 79 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 93 78 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 90 82 90 82 / 20 10 0 0
COTULLA 93 77 95 77 / 10 20 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 79 93 78 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 83 90 83 / 20 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94
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