815
FXUS64 KCRP 162332
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER CENTRAL AND WEST
TEXAS TOWARD NEW MEXICO. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES
UPSTREAM DUE TO POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING OF THE SAN ANTONIO, NUECES,
FRIO AND RIO GRANDE RIVERS. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN HAS STOPPED WE
TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE AFTER-MATH. THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IN
SOUTH TEXAS. PLEASE TAKE PROPER PRE-CAUTIONS TO AVOID FLOODED AREAS
AND REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE AREA, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS, RESULTING IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE CWA, ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEK. FOR TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80'S NEAR THE
COAST, AND MID 90'S OUT WEST. EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE WORK WEEK AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB TO 100F-105F AREAWIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NEAR THE COT AND LRD TAF SITES,
ALSO AROUND VCT, BUT THESE ARE MINIMAL. CONVECTION WEST COULD
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
IN PLACE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AND WILL KEEP WINDS
FROM SETTLING DOWN COMPLETELY. THINK MOST SITES WILL DECOUPLE AND
LOSE THE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT, BUT HAVE KEPT THEM FOR LRD. WINDS
WILL LIMIT ANY LOW CIGS, BUT HAVE SOME TEMPOS PRIMARILY AT VCT
AND ALI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME PERIODS OF A LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZE. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE AROUND 20-25% OR LESS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THE REST OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 92 80 92 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 77 91 77 92 / 20 0 0 0
LAREDO 78 99 79 100 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 95 77 97 / 20 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 78 93 78 94 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 90 83 89 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...PH/83
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