750
FXUS64 KCRP 041102
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- MODERATE-MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES 106 TO 112, AND HIGH TO EXTREME WBGT VALUES.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A FAIRLY TYPICAL AND BENIGN SUMMER-TIME SETUP CAN BE EXPECTED THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST AS SOUTH TEXAS LIES ON THE EASTERN FLANK
OF MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE LOWER-LVLS S-SE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. OUTSIDE OF
LOCALIZED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE, AMBIENT PWATS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD (GENERALLY 25TH
TO 50TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMO). THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS (BUT NOT ENTIRELY ZERO)
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE POTENTIALLY CREEPING UP SLIGHTLY (MAINLY
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS) LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW-LVL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS WE WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS WEST OF US-281, AND 90S ELSEWHERE.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK EACH DAY. MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY IN THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AND SHORT-FUSED ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED. FINALLY, FOR ANYONE DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES IN DIRECT
SUNLIGHT, WBGT VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE HIGH TO EXTREME RANGE,
OCCASIONALLY EVEN EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. TO SUM IT ALL UP, MAKE SURE
TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS, AND SEEK SHADE WHEN
POSSIBLE AS WE ARE ENTERING THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY IN SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD BASES HAS LED TO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALI AND VCT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO VFR LEVELS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. S-SE WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RELAX TONIGHT, BUT
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE (LARGELY FROM THE S-SE) FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS CAN
BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NEARSHORE BAYS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE UNDER 20% THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MIN RHS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEK OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH ERCS IN THE 55-75TH PERCENTILE
RANGE WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THIS REGION EACH DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE E-SE
IN THE 12 TO 18 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE 10% OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 79 94 79 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 100 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 103 79 104 79 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 98 76 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 92 81 92 81 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 104 77 104 77 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 96 77 96 77 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 90 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...TE/81
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